Thursday, May 25, 2006

Kev's Draft Predictions

The 2006 NBA draft - Chicago version

Firstly here is the draft order;
1. Toronto
2. Chicago (Via NY in a botched Paxon deal losing us Eddy Curry!! This had better work)
3. Charlotte
4. Portland
5. Atlanta
6. Minnesota
7. Boston
8. Houston
9. Golden State
10. Seattle
11. Orlando
12. New Orleans/OK
13. Philadelphia
14. Utah
15. New Orleans/OK (via Bucks)
16. Chicago
17. Indiana
18. Washington
19. Sacramento
20. New York (via Denver)
21. Phoenix (via Lakers)
22. New Jersey (via Clippers)
23. New Jersey
24. Memphis
25. Cleveland
26. L.A Lakers (via Miami)
27. Phoenix
28. Dallas
29. New York (via San Antonio)
30. Portland (via Detroit)
---------------------------------------------------
OK so I am not going to go through the whole draft and prospects etc or the post will just be enormous. I am going to talk about the important thing (for me) - Who will the Bulls pick! We have the no. 2 and no. 16 picks due to the Eddie Curry debarkle so it is important we make something out of this. Ando being a Paxon fan from way back is going to take a truckload of my abuse if this doesn't work out.

First problem we have is this is a pretty poor draft class, there are no High School superstars as the Draft rules have changed. That in particular is killing me as a 7'1" giant called Greg Oden would be eligible and he is likely to be the next dominant NBA centre (wait for the 2007 draft class it could be awesome, another High school superstar the 6'10" SF Kevin Durant has serious game). There are also no real standout college players as the NCAA's most prolific scorers and hyped players J.J Reddick (Duke) and Adam Morrison (Gonzaga) didn't take their team deep into the NCAA tourney. In addition to this Rudy Gay and UConn's team of stars didn't get very far either. With that in mind here are the players scouts are looking to go high in the draft.

Tyrus Thomas - LSU 6'9" PF - Young athletic and had a great tourney. I saw him play an average game so am confused about the hype. Touted to go in the top 3, seems risky to me.

LaMarcus Aldridge - Texas 6'10" PF - Saw a few Texas games and like what he can do. Has a good around the basket game with a variety of skills. Good rebounder and great timing for shot blocking. Young like Thomas so also a risk.

Andrea Bargnani - 7' Italy C - International scouts reckon he is awesome and better than any college big man. Always a risk picking a euro high in the draft.

Adam Morrison - 6'8" Gonzaga SF - Big time college scorer who loves to shoot. Looks like a white gumby and talks trash, the NBA is keen to teach him a lesson. My feeling is crash and burn as he will be too slow to get the same shots as in college and wont have the same height advantage.

Brandon Roy - 6'5" Washington SG - Had a good tourney and has good basic skills. Doubt if he is an NBA big time scorer though.

Rudy Gay - 6'9" UConn SF - very solid player, tournament performance killed his draft stock. If your team needs a SF get him.

Randy Foye - 6'4" Villanova PG/SG - Another "solid" guard prospect so many to choose from.

Ronneie Brewer - 6'7" Arkansas PG/SG - Poor shooter but has other skills, really SF is more his NBA game.

Shelden Williams - 6'9" Duke PF - Dominant in College but most people feel he will have problems with the NBA bigs. He is nothing special more your workhorse player.

Marcus Williams - 6'3" UConn PG - Another average guard to choose from

JJ Reddick - 6'4" Duke SG - Was the man till LSU's D shut him down, now everyone questions his ability. He can shoot the lights out, any team needing to get some firepower from outside will pick him up. I reckon he would be a good fit for Indiana but doubt he will fall to 17.

Maruice Ager - 6' 5" Michigan State SG - Another middle of the road guard. I have seen a few games however and like his potential. Another dark horse pick from me.

Hilton Armstrong - 6'11" UConn PF/C - My dark horse pick - scouts have him going between 13 - 20, I like his game. Good fundamentals and very coachable. On a team with stars he didn't stand out but has a great base to work with.

So what does Chicago need, well in my opinion Hinrich is a reasonable NBA point guard, he has developed extremely well. Certainly he is a good passer, ball handler and is excellent at running an offence, downside is that he is slow and though he has a good shot unfortunately he has to take some low % options due to the lack of other scoring options. Ben Gordon has the SG spot locked-up despite Coach Skiles hating him, he is the best offensive talent on the team and will keep developing his game to make better decisions. Deng is a good fit for SF, a young and athletic guy who is developing his game but was set back by injury this year. These are all young guys who have the potential (an important word for a Bulls fan) to become a good NBA backcourt in the future, they took Miami to 6 games without a superstar on the team and nothing inside to score on or guard Shaq!! There isn't much on the bench to back these guys up and that is a problem.

Upfront the Bulls have;
Malik Allen - not starting material
Othella Harrington - old and not starting material
Michael Sweetney - undersize overweight and not starting material
Luke Schenscher - An Australian who Shenanigans played against for a season yay!!!(he played A1's with North's due to being to young/crap for Div 1). Not starting material a rookie and stick figure

Tyson Chandler - High School pheonom superstar, a good defensive player and rebounder who cannot score a point to save his life and fouls out nearly every game. I live in eternal hope of his untapped potential developing.

Andres Nocioni - An amazing player, very euro. Great work ethic, defender and incredible inside player considering his size. His jumper is even quite good. Is best suited sharing the SF spot with Deng and playing some PF against smaller teams. Every team in the NBA wants this guy coming off the bench, had a great playoff series.

To me that picture says Chicago needs an inside player, someone who can score points and play D. I was extremely concerned however to read a Chicago tribune article suggesting we need guards or a SF like Morrison!!! and to look to get a big man under free agency. To me this is insanity as the free agent market is pretty poor this year despite the bucketloads of money we have. Really the only viable player is Ben Wallace and I doubt he will leave Detroit. He has pretty much come out and said already that he won't go to Chicago. My faith was slightly restored today however with Bulls GM Paxon (Ando's buddy) saying "We need size and we need athleticism". To me that says we are getting Tyrus Thomas or Aldridge and I really want Aldridge. For some reason however Toronto despite having crap Guards and an all-star PF appear to be looking for a big!!!

Worst case scenario the Bulls take Morrison at 2 and one of many average guards at 16. It takes months to work out that Ben Wallace will not sign with us for all the Gold in fort Knox so we miss out on any free agency deal. We spend another year playing with great intensity only to lose games due to having nothing inside to stop teams pressuring our guards and overpowering us in the paint. I make a special trip to Canberra with a loud speaker and spend the entire day abusing Ando over mismanagement of the Bulls by GM Paxon.

What the Bulls will probably do;
Take the Euro Bargnani at 2 and a middle of the road SF/PF like Shawnee Williams at 16. We then blow all our free agency dollars on a "superstar" guard like Bonzi Wells

OK so here is my preferred option for the draft;
GET SOME BIGS
LaMarcus Aldridge at 2 - He may not be an impact player immediately but should develop quickly and provide some scoring down low. If Toronto take Aldridge then you have no choice but to gamble on Thomas or Bargnani, I pick Thomas as a total guess having seen him in one game and Bargnani in none.

If he slips to 16 take Hilton Armstrong - My dark horse pick, most people have him going at 13. I am hoping he takes a slide. There are other bigs to choose from a few euro's and James Augustine, please don't pick Boone!!

We have lots of money in free agency dollars so lets get Jim Jackson - He has one thing the bulls lack... experience plus can play SG or SF and wont cost us too much if we play our cards right (shakes fist at Paxon). Lets save our money (again!!) till there is something worth buying.

So there you have it lets tune in for the Draft on June 28 :D That is all from me.

Cheers,
Kev

0 comments: